November 12, 2006

After the chaos...

Before yesterday, Notre Dame was sunk in their hopes for a national title. Lou Holtz seemed like a delusional former coach expressing that the Golden Domers were still in this thing. Today, I wake up and the Irish are at #5 in the AP poll, giving them hope with USC ranked ahead of them. It's still a very long shot, but they could end up in Glendale after all...

With that being said, apologies to not having my post up from last week. Alas, the Louisville fans didn't get to see their name in lights as being the team who gets to face the Big Ten winner in Glendale.

Here we go... numbers in parenthesees are the number of +.500 BCS wins and the overall record of their opponents.

1. Michigan (4) (57-49)
2. Ohio State (3) (52-55)
3. Rutgers (3) (42-38) (played 1 I-AA opponent)

- Here are the remaining unbeatens with national championship aspirations. In my opinion, if Louisville could have been considered, then you have to rank the Scarlet Knights at #3 for now.

4. Florida (5) (59-42)
5. USC (5) (52-41)
6. Louisville (3) (51-39)
7. Notre Dame (3) (55-48)
8. Arkansas (3) (45-46) (1 I-AA opponent)
9. West Virginia (1) (41-38) (1 I-AA opponent)
10. Boise State (1) (39-47)
11. Wisconsin (2) (36-50)
12. Wake Forest (1) (31-49)

- This rounds out the once-beaten teams and well, Boise State. The Broncos are still looking good for the Fiesta Bowl after the game winning kick against San Jose State. Florida and USC have the superior resumes while Wisconsin and Wake Forest's resumes prove why their still amongst the list.

13. Texas (4) (61-41)
14. LSU (3) (54-46)
15. Georgia Tech (2) (50-39)
16. Auburn (3) (60-51)
17. Oklahoma (3) (56-50)

- These are the first thought of two-loss teams. Texas and Georgia Tech control their destiny to make the BCS as they can win their conference championship games. LSU and Auburn would need help and some key losses by the teams ahead to get there. I finally put LSU over Auburn due to LSU's losses coming on the road while Auburn's wins and losses against BCS winners have all come at Jordan-Hare. Oklahoma could get into the BCS due to the impression of their "loss" to Oregon. The consensus could view the Sooners as an 11-1 team.

18. Maryland (1) (48-41)
19. Virginia Tech (1) (44-44)

- The ACC pair have a win over Clemson in common and they have lost against Georgia Tech. Maryland's other loss was at West Virginia and Va. Tech lost to Boston College. The difference is that Maryland can still make the ACC Championship Game whereas Virginia Tech is locked out with Georgia Tech having qualified.

20. California (4) (51-42)
21. Boston College (2) (49-41)

- While their opponents records are better than the two teams above, their losses include a losing team (NC State at 3-7, beating BC) and a .500 team (Arizona, 5-5, beating Cal yesterday).

22. BYU (0) (49-58)
23. TCU (1) (39-47)

- The non-BCS teams get in because we have no more 2 loss teams left.

24. Nebraska (3) (61-41)
25. Clemson (2) (56-55)

- The Huskers get back in with back-to-back wins over winners. Clemson hangs on to the win over one-loss Wake Forest.

BCS scenarios

- The SEC title game is set with Florida to face Arkansas. Winner goes to the Sugar Bowl or even perhaps Glendale. LSU and Auburn can each finish 10-2 but wouldn't control their fate.

- The Big Ten is easy, the Ohio State-Michigan winner goes to Glendale, while the loser settles for Pasadena. Wisconsin cannot go to the BCS as only two teams are allowed per conference.

- The Pac-10 will be decided this weekend when USC and California hook up in L.A. The Pac-10 can get two if Cal beats USC and then the Trojans in return beat Notre Dame. That would leave both at 2 losses and a 10-2 USC team making a strong case for a bid.

- The Big 12 is down to Texas or Oklahoma against Nebraska in the Big 12 Championship. Oklahoma is another candidate at 10-2 if they win out and Texas beats A&M.

- The ACC will only send their champion. Georgia Tech has qualified for Jacksonville with Boston College, Maryland, and Wake Forest sorting things out on the other side. The teams are ranked too low to end up as automatics outside of the conference championship automatic bid.

- The Big East would send Rutgers if they win out or the highest ranked team if the Rutgers-WV-Louisville round-robin comes to fruition. Each team would have lost on the road, but West Virginia would be the likely team to advance with having suffered the earliest loss. I truly believe that West Virginia is the only attractive at-large bid for the BCS bowls due to crowd sizes, Louisville or Rutgers would get trumped by 10-2 teams such as Oklahoma, Notre Dame or even LSU who have greater fan bases.

- Notre Dame goes by winning out, erasing all doubt. The Irish can still advance if USC wins out and they would be left at 10-2 against other 10-2 qualifiers.

- Boise State will go so long as they stay undefeated.

Here is my predicted shakedown with the conference champions and automatic qualifiers. Michigan and Boise State will remain ranked ahead of at least one other conference champion, that keeps them in the BCS.

NC - *Ohio State vs. *USC
Sugar - *Florida vs.
Orange - *Georgia Tech vs. *West Virginia
Fiesta - *Texas vs. Boise State
Rose - Michigan vs.

- This scenario would leave an 11-1 Louisville and Rutgers competing with 10-2 LSU, Arkansas, or Auburn, and Notre Dame, and Oklahoma, and California for the final spots. Three slots and eight teams, who would you pick? The 10-2 teams would bring the greater fanbases and something tells me Notre Dame would not be passed over three times, especially with losses against two of the top three teams in the country at the time. (USC, Michigan)

- While the qualifying scenarios seemed paired down there is a lot of football left to be played. The SEC, ACC, and Big 12 won't decide their entrant until December 2nd. By virtue of the standings and schedule, neither will the Big East. Only the Big Ten and Pac-10 will be done by this next weekend.

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Heavenly time period: College football season until the championship game of March Madness.