October 29, 2006

Top 25 - October 28th

We have a bit of a shuffle and with the new grouping system we have some weird results this week. One thing is for certain, in the system wins over one-loss teams are highly valued. Louisville or West Virginia will bolt to #3 in next week's poll due to the system, but for now their ranking accurately reflects their resume to this point in the season. Without further adieu...

1. Michigan
2. Ohio State

- These are the only two undefeated teams that have wins over one loss teams. Winner on November 18th goes to the National Championship Game, the loser to the Rose Bowl.

3. Arkansas
4. Auburn
5. Florida
6. Tennessee
7. USC

- Perfect shakedown amongst the SEC teams in that Arkansas beat Auburn who beat Florida who beat Tennessee. USC, even with the loss on Saturday to Oregon State, still has the win over one-loss Arkansas boosting them.

8. Rutgers
9. Louisville
10. Boise State
11. West Virginia

- Again, the winner of UofL and West Virginia will vault to #3. Boise State actually gained status with Oregon State's win. The Broncos beat the Beavers earlier in the season. Rutgers still has the chance to shock everyone and run the Big East table.

12. California
13. Notre Dame
14. Texas
15. Boston College
16. Texas A&M

- Cal is now the best of the one loss teams with multiple wins over winning teams. They have four wins. Notre Dame hovers at four as Navy joined their list but UCLA moved to being a .500 team or below after their loss to Washington State. Texas was left for dead before coming back against Texas Tech. Their win over Nebraska last week gets a bit tainted after the Huskers were dropped by Oklahoma State. Boston College is one hail mary from being undefeated and has the inside track to the ACC Championship Game.

17. Wisconsin
18. Wake Forest

- Wisconsin has wins over two winners, however, Indiana and Purdue could each end up .500 before the year is out. That would make the Badgers more like the Demon Deacons, who still only reside here as a one loss team.

19. LSU
20. Georgia Tech
21. Oregon
22. Virginia Tech
23. Clemson
24. Oklahoma
25. Maryland

- The two loss teams in a bit of a breakdown. LSU's losses are to one-loss teams. Everyone else has a loss to at least a one-loss team and another team.

- Next week I'll tweak the system. First thought is to combine the wins over one and two loss teams. Conversely, it can be viewed that wins over those teams are potentially wins over 10-game winners.

- I'll also have to spread out the status of the two-loss teams. There is a difference between losing to two dogs and what LSU has on their resume. Of course, the Bayou Bengals take on Tennessee this next weekend and they could shake up the standings that much more with a win.

Now the general impressions:

- USC's run ended, but we all expected it to California, Oregon, or Notre Dame. Oregon State?

- Is it just me or is Michigan getting too much credit for a 17-3 win over Northwestern on Saturday? The Wildcats are swiss cheese on defense and the Wolves should have gotten more than 17 points. Yes, the defense was fabulous and I was never worried about them losing, but come on, call it what it is folks, the defense is carrying this mediocre offense.

- Ohio State rolls. I know I have the new system, but Ohio State is the best team in the land.

- The SEC is absolutely brutal. Arkansas, Auburn, Florida, and Tennessee could all wind up 11-1 before Arkansas and Florida would head to the SEC Championship Game. This leaves out LSU who could upset Tennessee and Arkansas and still leave the conference with FIVE 10-game winners. (Auburn, Arkansas, Florida, Tennessee, LSU).

- USC's loss is not Notre Dame's gain for the BCS. The USC - Notre Dame tilt looks like a knockout game for the BCS bid in my mind. If USC beats Oregon and California, then the Trojans and Irish would meet on Thanksgiving Weekend at one loss apiece. Winner is in, the loser would be suffering. If USC loses again it only can hurt the Irish that much more. To sum it up, I think Notre Dame has to beat USC to make the BCS.

The only contrary to that belief is if it ends up as a competition of Louisville or Notre Dame. The Cardinals don't sell out their home stadium and they don't have their marketable players, Brian Brohm or Michael Bush. So long as it comes down to that, then the Irish could slip in.

NC - Ohio State vs. West Virginia
Sugar - Arkansas vs. Notre Dame
Orange - Boston College vs. Auburn
Fiesta - Texas vs. Boise State (auto)
Rose - Michigan vs. USC

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Heavenly time period: College football season until the championship game of March Madness.